Showing posts with label french politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label french politics. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

The Decline of France as Seen Through the Increasingly Odd Marital Lives of its Presidents

Emmanuel Macron, 39 and his wife, Brigitte, 64

Note: I'm defining "odd" from a traditional or traditionalist Catholic perspective. On that definition, a "normal" family is one husband, one wife, multiple kids, and one van. If your situation is not "normal" or is "odd" by that standard, that's okay. I don't own a van either.

When former French President François Mitterrand died in 1996, his funeral was attended by both his wife and his long-term mistress. "How French," it was said, at the time.

That's an interesting and perhaps funny anecdote. But it doesn't tell the whole story . . .

I want to take a closer look at the marital lives of the modern French presidents. And for good measure, I'll throw in the four major candidates for the current election. If you follow me to the end, I think you'll see why I did it.

Modern France has a five-year presidential term. And you are allowed to run again. Hence, in the almost sixty years since the founding of the Fifth Republic, there have been only seven presidents - eight, counting whoever wins in two weeks.

THE ELECTED PRESIDENTS

Charles de Gaulle (1959-1969): 1 wife, 3 children.

The De Gaulles were staunch Catholics. His wife, Yvonne Vendroux, reportedly wanted to ban the mini-skirt.

Georges Pompidou (1969-74): 1 wife, 1 child.

Pompidou was a close friend and aide to De Gaulle. Before becoming president, he managed the Anne de Gaulle Foundation for Down syndrome (de Gaulle's daughter Anne had Down's syndrome).

Valéry Giscard d'Estaing (1974-81): 1 wife, 4 children.

Giscard d'Estang is tied with Mitterand for having the most kids on the list. In fairness, I should point out that he is probably also tied with Mitterand for extra-marital womanizing.

François Mitterrand (1981-95): 1 wife, 4 children, 1 mistress.

Jacques Chirac (1995-2007): 1 wife, 2 children.

Nicolas Sarkozy (2007-12): 3 wives, 1.33 children per wife.

As everyone knows. For his third wife, Sarkozy married a former model. This, of course, is a French thing. We would never do that here.

François Hollande (2012-17): 0 wives, 3 domestic partners, 1.33 children per domestic partner (all of them were from his first one).

Hollande's first partner, Ségolène Royal, was a successful politician in her own right, making it into the second round of the 2007 presidential election. The Hollande-Royales would often domestically pose around their domestic breakfast table with their four domestic kids, before Hollande would kick Royale out of his domicile in favor of domestic partner # 2, Valérie Trierweiler, a talk-show host. Hollande and Royale are on record as saying that they never married because it was "too bourgeois."

THE 2017 CANDIDATES (obviously, we know now that the bottom two won't win)

Emmanuel Macron: 1 wife (25 years his senior), 0 children.

Macron started "dating" his future wife when he was 15 and she was 40 (Brigitte Trogneux was his high-school teacher). But they didn't actually marry until he was 30 and she was 55. He is now 39 and she is . . . you get the picture. In fairness, she doesn't look a day over 61.

Marine Le Pen: 2 husbands, 1 current domestic partner, 1 child per husband/partner.

Given the other examples, one wouldn't think that Le Pen's non-traditional marital life would hurt her politically. Then, again, unlike, say Hollande, some of Le Pen's potential supporters are conservative Catholics. I suspect it doesn't do her any good.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 1 wife (divorced), 1 child.

Mélenchon is sort of the odd-man out. He has intentionally tried very hard to keep his private life private, and thus there is nothing on it in Wikipedia or similar sources. In fact, the rumpled Maoist was married and divorced many years ago. His one daughter is apparently devoted to him, as well as to his socialist causes.

François Fillon: 1 wife, 5 children, 1 castle.

Fillon wins the title for having the most traditional family. And, yes, he is a Catholic, and, yes, they do live in a castle (which is even better than a van). However, he is, arguably, too pro-family, or at least, too pro-his family. A few months ago, his campaign suffered a huge setback when it was revealed that he had put his wife on the public payroll with alleged little-work jobs - netting the Fillons at least a million dollars over the years. There were also similar allegations involving two of his children and smaller sums. This scandal almost certainly cost him the chance to advance into the second round of the election.

What does it all mean?

I've had a bit of fun with the public private lives of French politicians. But my purpose was not to criticize them per se, rather, it was to point out the change in, shall we say, standards for what the French find acceptable, or at least acceptable for their presidents and politicians. Or even more to the point, what those presidents and politicians themselves find acceptable.

There's also the question of French identity and how demographic trends are affecting it. France is becoming more Muslim, not merely because of current immigration or the current "migrant" wave (although that's obviously a part of it), but because non-Muslim French are having far-fewer children than their Muslim counterparts. For example, by some estimates, more than half of all babies now born in greater Paris are born to Muslim parents. So, to put it bluntly, if the French wish to protect their non-Muslim Frenchness, then unless they want to kick all Muslims (including those who are French citizens) out of the country, they need to have more babies. Yet their presidents and politicians are not setting the greatest example. (True, the question becomes more complicated when you look at divorce - babies are babies, whether they come from one spouse or three - or, one or three domestic partners. But I think it's true that, on a general level, at least, it's all of a piece. "Instability" tends to lead to fewer children, and/or is a symptom of preferences not being fully ordered to the having or raising of children.)

Seen in the light of the past two decades, the funny comments about Mitterand's mistress are almost ironic. How French, indeed. Or, rather, how French it used to be. Compared to the current average, the one wife plus one mistress of that old socialist Mitterrand, looks positively bourgeois.

Hey, don't blame me, man. I voted for . . .

Okay, never mind.

Thursday, February 16, 2017

BOMBSHELL: Marine Le Pen is Now Favored to Win the Presidency of France



Today, the prediction markets posted an 8 point shift in percentage odds for the two leading candidates in the French presidential race. Marine Le Pen of the National Front is now favored to win.

As far as I am aware, this is the first time Le Pen has ever been the favorite.

Let me emphasize that she is now favored to win the presidency itself, not merely the first round of voting where she has been the favorite for many months. Le Pen will almost certainly win the first round by a substantial margin and (according to the prediction markets) go on to beat Emmanuel Macron of the leftist On the Move party or Francois Fillon of the centrist Republicans in the second round.


The National Front emerged as a major competitor in the 1988 presidential elections under Le Pen's father, Jean-Marie Le Pen. But until the last few years, it had never polled higher than 20%. In the 2002 vote, Jean-Marie Le Pen came in second in the first round of voting with 17% of the vote but then ;got embarrassingly crushed, 82% to 18% in the second round. This essentially showed that at that time, virtually no one outside of the National Front's circle of enthusiastic supporters would consider voting for the party under any set of circumstances.

In the 2007 and 2012 elections, Marine Le Pen failed to qualify for the second round, receiving 10% and 18% of the vote, respectively.

But against the background of increasing Muslim crime, rioting and terrorism, support for the National Front has recently increased. And it's reputation as an "extremist" party with little potential for cross-over support has been to some extent moderated or reduced.

The National Front has been dubbed "far-right," but this is quite misleading. the party is almost certainly more left-wing or socialist on economic issues than the Republicans. It attracts support from such seemingly diverse constituencies as the French working class, the homosexual community and traditionalist Catholics. Perhaps the two issues that define the party and unite its supporters are its populist stance against "Europe" and "the elite" and it's opposition to the further Islamization of France.

In some ways it's a similar coalition to that which got Donald Trump elected this past November.

It's important to note that the polls have not yet "caught up" to the prediction markets. As I reported a few days ago, the most up-to-date polls have Le Pen losing to either Macron or Fillon in the second round. But in recent democratic elections in the West, the prediction markets have been more accurate than the polls. Le Pen partisans might also take heart in the fact that even the prediction markets have under-predicted the strength of "anti-elitist" sympathies as seen in both the Brexit vote and the recent presidential election in the United States.

Monday, February 13, 2017

Amazing Catholic Poster for the Upcoming French Election


This beautiful and inspiring poster was made by Le Salon Beige for the upcoming French presidential election. It does not support any particular candidate. Indeed, I assume faithful Catholics are somewhat split between the "center" candidate, Francois Fillon and the "right" candidate, Marine Le Pen. I think it's fair to say that both candidates (and their parties) elicit both enthusiasm and distrust among faithful Catholic voters. Thus, when the poster says "God can change all hearts," it may be referring to the candidates as much as to members of the electorate.

While the "left" candidate Emmanuel Macron has some support from people who identify as "Catholic"- perhaps including left-wing "Francis Catholics" - it is doubtful that many of them would relate to this poster.

Who will win? Polls have consistently shown Le Pen in the lead for the first round of voting. Macron appears to be in second, with a recently faltering Fillon sinking down to third. If no one gets 50% of the vote (which is almost certain), then the two highest vote getters go head to head in a second round. Polls suggest that Le Pen would then lose to either Macron or Fillon by a wide margin.

However, the prediction markets - often more accurate then the polls - currently put Le Pen's chances only a few percentage points below those of Macron (with Fillon far behind both of them). 
The Elections of 2017 
under the sign of divine mercy 
The first round of presidential elections will take place on Sunday, April 23, the first Sunday after Easter, Day of the Divine Mercy, and the Feast of St. George, the great defender of Christianity. 
The second round of elections, the 7th of May, will take place on the eve of the Feast of Saint Michael of Mount Gargano. St. Michael, angelic protector of France, has helped our country more than once (the taking of Orleans by Joan of Arc and the armistice of May 8, 1945.) 
To prepare for these elections, we are proposing to say daily, the Divine Mercy Chaplet for France in asking the Lord God for the grace of a president of His own heart, followed by the prayer of Leo XIII to St. Michael the Archangel, and the invocation of St. George and other protectors of France (Our Lady of the Assumption, St. Joseph, St. Joan of Arc, St. Therese of the Infant Jesus.) 
To all of those who think that everything is said and done, we say that God can change all hearts. Remember that by the intercession of St. Clothilde, He made to be baptized Clovis, and converted France.