Monday, November 7, 2016

272 to 266 - On Eve of the Election, Electoral Map is on a Knife Edge

The final Real Clear Politics poll averages show Clinton ahead by an average of 2.6% in the popular vote.

They also show the Clinton campaign up by 203 to 164 on the electoral map if toss ups states are left out.

However, if you click the "No Toss Ups" box (see above), giving the electoral votes of the toss ups to the candidate who is ahead - however slightly - in the polls, it's virtually even: Clinton beats Trump by only 272 to 266. That's a difference of just one state, even one of the smallest states. Indeed, it's the difference of a mere partial state - Maine, which splits its electoral votes.

In fairness, Predictit, the leading prediction market, gives Clinton an 80% chance of winning. I find this curious. In fact, Trump has sunk from 40% to 20% in the last ten days, even as he was increasing in many of the state polls.

Predictit also has Clinton winning the popular vote by a larger margin than the polls show - 4% to 6%.

I'm not arguing with those numbers. The prediction markets have a history of being more accurate than any particular poll or average of polls. But I'm not sure I understand them.

Maybe Marina Abramovic put a hex on the investors.

Are we on the eve of a Brexit-like Trump surprise victory? Possibly. 20% doesn't mean it won't happen, only that it only has a 20% chance of happening. Not to over stress the point, but things with a 20% chance of happening sometimes happen - 20% of the time.

In my view, Trump is and was the best candidate, in terms of his chances for victory, of any Republican. That he still might lose to the co-head of America's premier criminal family, following up on the disastrous presidency of an incompetent Affirmative Action grifter is . . . disturbing.

Keep in mind that in the last six elections, only one Republican has won the majority or even the plurality of the popular vote, and that was by only 2.4%.

Do I want Trump to win? Of course.

It's funny. I began the primary season by thinking that Trump was at best a joke and at worst, well, a grifter.

Now, I have to say that I think he and what he represents are of Reagan proportions. And the stakes are as high if not higher than in 1980.

Whether that says more about me or Trump is your call.

I don't think he's the lesser of two evils. I think he's a good man who will make a great president.

Is he a Catholic? No. But Paul Ryan is a coward. Rick Santorum is boring. JFK was a poser and Al Smith is long dead.

If there is still any Catholic reading this is who is undecided, voting third-party, not voting or (God forgive you) voting for Hillary,

Stop being a morally superior Hamlet and do the right thing.

Tomorrow is our St. Crispin's day.


  1. Good work Oakes. Let us pray to the God of surprises that Trump wins.

  2. I see a Trump victory and not only because I do not trust the lying media and their rigged polls

    Millions of whiteys who won't leave the house for the Mormon will flood the polling places for Trump